New Delhi Around 1.5 million (or 15 lakh) more people may die in India each year due to extreme heat by 2100, a new study has found.
The study conducted by Tata Centre for Development (TCD) at the University of Chicago, United States of America (USA), which was released at UChicago Centre here on Thursday, said continued high emissions of greenhouse gases are projected to lead to a 4 degree celsius rise in average annual temperature in India by 2100.
"India is projected to see an increase of death rates due to climate change equal to about 10% of the current death rate. That is 60 deaths per 1,00,000 population by the end of the century under the scenario of continued emissions," the study said.
It said that the average number of extremely hot days around the country, presently over 35 degree Celsius, are likely to increase by more than 8 times per year to 42.8 degree Celsius. It added that the spike in average summer temperature & number of extremely hot days has an impact on mortality.
"6 states of UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, AP, MP & Maharashtra are estimated to contribute 64% of the total excess deaths -- more than 1.5 million deaths each year in all -- due to temperature rises caused by climate change," it said.
The study is the 1st in a series of findings estimating the human & economic costs of climate change & weather shocks in India, conducted by the Climate Impact Lab in collaboration with the Tata Centre for Development (TCD), a statement issued by the organisation said. It was released in the presence of Union Jal Shakti Minister GS Shekhawat, who said climate change is happening & govt was taking measures to build India's resilience to climate change.
"Climate change is upon us. We see that in the form of erratic monsoons, prolonged droughts & heat waves. All these exacerbate several problems that we are already grappling with, including water stress. We are calling for rejuvenation of traditional water bodies, talking about giving incentive to crops that are less water-intensive & also promoting participatory groundwater management-all of which will help build India's resilience to climate change," he said.
According to the study, while Delhi is projected to experience 22 times more extremely hot days by 2100, Haryana will be 20 times hotter, Punjab & Rajasthan will be 17 seven times hotter, respectively.
"With the number of extremely hot days increasing, 16 out of the 36 states & union territories are projected become hotter than Punjab, which is currently the hottest state in India... Punjab is expected to continue to be India's hottest state in 2100, with average annual temperature around 36 degree Celsius," it said.
Michael Greenstone, faculty director at the Tata Centre for Development (TCD) & a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab said these findings make clear that the continued reliance on fossil fuels globally will greatly harm the well-being of Indians in the coming years & decades.
Amir Jina, member of the Climate Impact Lab, said, "Having already seen 2,500 deaths due to a heat wave in 2015, the future is going to be even more worrying if India & the world doesn't change course to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change."
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