The Author, Vishal Ojha is a student of BA.LLB at Allahabad University, Uttar Pradesh.
Introduction
Amid Corona Virus pandemic besides many other things one more speculation is continuously going on that what would be the world order after this Corona Virus pandemic, whether the America will remain Super Power or China will overtake the America as a new super power of the world and the post pandemic era will bring an end to the American hegemony as when at this moment at least one third of the entire population of the world is facing some sort of lockdown either complete or partial and countries such as India, China, France, Italy, New Zealand, Poland, and the UK have implemented the world's largest and most restrictive mass quarantine[1] and even the current Super power America is facing severe crisis of saving the lives of its people and economy as the International Monetary Fund in its Global Outlook said that the global economy will shrink 3% this year and the Gross Domestic Product of the United States Of America will see a fall of 5.9% in 2020[2] and America has also reported the highest number of cases of Corona Virus Disease(COVID-19) i.e.1,322,163 cases as of now and also reported the highest numbers of death from Corona Virus disease i.e. 78,616 deaths reported till now[3] whereas the China after showing a sharp decline in its economic progress in the month of February when rise of the cases of COVID-19 was very high is coming again back on track of economic growth and as per the projection of International Monetary Fund the growth rate of China would be 1.2% in 2020 and 9.2% in 2021, while China has only 82,827 cases out of which only 4,633 deaths were reported due to COVID-19[4]. So here the author would analyse whether there would be the rise of a new super power in world order or the situation will remain the same under following heads:
Necessary Elements Required For a Super Power:-
The word superpower was for the first time applied after the second World War to denote United States of America and Soviet Union. Basically in international politics the concept of power says that every nation state in the international arena has the tendency to either retain the power or to increase the power and those countries which are already powerful they have the tendency to demonstrate their power to another countries of the world. To designate a country as a superpower we have to see that whether country by use of its military,economic,cultural strength as well as by the use of its diplomatic and soft power is able to exert its influence in whole world order and plays a dominant role at global scale[5].Here Author will try to do a comparative study between United States Of America and China with reference to the salient feature of a superpower while throwing a light on pre and post pandemic scenario.
Economic Strength of America and China:-
According to International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database, in the month of October 2019 the United States Of America holds the position as the largest economy of the world with nominal gross domestic product(GDP) of $21.44 trillion while having share of 23.6% in global economy whereas China stands at second position with nominal Gross Domestic Product of $14.14 trillion which constitute the 15.5% of the global economy[6].Here we also need to look the dramatic increase of China’s share in global economy from 4.5% in 2005 to 15.5% in 2020 and China is entering in the rank of middle income countries. Here we should also take note of the fact that China supplies more than 90 percent of antibiotics used in United States of America. It also produces many other drugs and biologics on which Americans depend on, including heparin, HIV/AIDS. Furthermore the market of 5G network, superfast cellular technology that is clamed to bring fourth Industrial revolution is dominated by Huawei, a company which is linked to the Chinese Communist Party[7].
Now if we analyse the post pandemic scenario then according to the research report published by JP Morgan the economy of U.S. can face the fall of nearly 10% in its GDP whereas the growth rate of China’s entire year GDP would remain 1.1 percent as per the forecast[8]. Moreover when the economy of most of the countries are crippling the china according to its official report has exported 3.86 billion masks, 37.5 million pieces of personal protective equipment(PPEs), 16, 000 ventilators and 2.84 million testing kits of COVID-19 since March 1, to more than 50 countries[9].
Comparison Between military strength of China and America-
Chinese military is world’s third most powerful military in 2020 with a score of 0.0691 in the Power Index Criteria. It is also to be noted that in 2019 it has spent $195 billion to sponsor the military base which is also the second most spending budget in the world while the United States Of America has spent approximately $3794 billion each year which is almost 2000% of China’s budget and with a total score of 0.0606 it stands at the first rank in the list of world’s most powerful militaries[10].
Now if we talk about the post pandemic scenario then here we need to give attention to one point that even though the economic strength can be readjusted into military strength and as the economy of China is still on the continuous rise and China is continuously increasing its military spending thus it is quite probable that it get military strength to be a super power but it should also be noted that military spending reflects a long term investment in the capacity to generate the military power and long term cumulative spending on military strength yields so much strength which are hard to achieve even by a state having lots of money to spend with it.
Comparison Between soft power of America and China-
Soft power is the use of country’s cultural and economic influence to persuade other countries to do something, rather than the use of military power[11]. According to the survey conducted by consultancy Brand Finance in April 2020 the United States came in top in Global Soft Power Index in terms of its influence in entertainment, media, sport and science. Though it has lost its reputation remarkably in terms of governance and political stability because of the actions taken by American President Donald Trump such as withdrawal of America from Paris Agreement on Climate Change, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iranian Nuclear policy and Trumps impeachment trial has also caused the loss of reputation to America. On the other hand according to the survey China is ranked as the world’s second most influential country but is ranked 24th in terms of reputation[11]
Now if a glance is given about the situation of these both country’s in terms of soft power during and after this COVID-19 pandemic then while on one hand America has damaged its reputation in terms of health care system caused by quite late and lackadaisical response of Trump administration in dealing with this Pandemic because of which numbers of dead and infected people from COVID-19 are on continuous rise. But America acting as a world leader has also given a financial assistance of USD 174 million to 64 countries to fight against COVID-19. Whereas if we talk about China then even though it faced severe criticism for proliferating COVID-19 as well as by hiding the substantial information from world community related to the severity of COVID-19. But it has projected itself well as the role model in tackling COVID-19. China has given medical assistance to many countries such as Italy, Spain and many other European and African nations. Even Chinese government has donated 1000 ventilators to New York too.[12]
Where China is lacking in being the superpower in terms of soft power-
Even though China is presenting itself as the world leader in tackling with COVID-19 by helping many countries of the world in terms of medical supplies and ventilators and personal protective equipment(PPEs) but there are many other things which are demeaning its claim to project itself as the world leader in tackling with COVID-19. For example the hiding of substantial information related to COVID-19 which led it to become a pandemic and causing severe harm to entire world really inflicted harm to the reputation of China. It is also said by many experts that through its medical assistance which is also termed as mask diplomacy to the countries such as Italy, Iran and Turkey it is trying to improve its malign image in the minds of the people of these countries and trying to further pave the way for its One Belt One Road project. Moreover a very recent conversation of Chinese President Xi Xinping with the Italian Prime minister Giuseppe Conte in which Chinese president expressed his desire to establish a “health silk road” as part of China’s One Belt One Road initiative has been perceived with utter criticism from several nation states which are worried of increasing Chinese influence in the region[13]. It Should also be taken into account that even though China is doing both exportation and donation of medical supplies and trying to leverage his soft power in the world but the complaints are also coming from many countries of the world that the medical supplies exported and donated by China is not up to the established medical standard and so they are being returned back to china. Authorities in Spain, Turkey and Netherland has said that the testing kits and masks are below standard or defective and so they are returning it back to China[14].
Closing Comment-
In an analysis report published by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD) the world economy will go into recession this year with likely exception of India and China. Further the consideration should also be given to the fact that China has tackled this Pandemic with more efficiency than that of America and where on one side whole world is under complete or partial lockdown and all the economic activities are stagnant in entire world the purchasing manager index (PMI)for China’s manufacturing sector was 50.8 percent in the month of April while the PMI index of America remained at 41.5 percent for the same period. Here it is to be taken into account that the PMI index below 50 shows the contraction in the economy while PMI index above 50 shows the expansion in the economy. Now if we give a preponderance as to how America became super power then we will get to know that The Second World War had done no harm to the American economy and it exported military materials to the warring nations and the Gross National Product of America rose from about $100 billion to about $5,200 billion from 1940 to 1987[15]. Later America converted this economic advancement to military advancement and political supremacy and for the time being China is trying to do the same by exporting and donating medical supplies at large scale and creating the narrative of being responsible nation state during this pandemic. But here it should also be noted that the Hiding of information related to COVID-19 did substantial harm to the reputation of China in world arena. Furthermore China’s debt trap diplomacy of which many economically weak countries Such as Srilanka and Djibouti has fall prey into and paying hefty price in terms of loosing their strategic asset to China has also not made a better impression of China in entire world. Furthermore it is very difficult to say that the geopolitical order of the world will change after this pandemic as we have seen that in 1918-1919 too nearly 5 crore people died due to pandemic and thus the numbers of casualties were more than First World War but the lasting global changes that unfolded over the next two decades were a consequence of war not of disease[16]. Thus we can say that while as per many studies the China Will become the major economic power in the world till 2050 in terms of GDP growth but for the time being we can conclusively say that the rivalry between these two powers i.e. America and China will continue.
References-
[1]. https://www.businessinsider.in/a-third-of-the-global-population-is-on-coronavirus-lockdown-x2014-
[2]. https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/coronavirus-imf-says-global-economy-on-track-to-shrink-by-3-in-2020-1667054-2020-04-15.
[3]. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
[4]. https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/indicators/imf-projects-indias-growth-rate-at-1-9-in-2020-forecasts-global-recession-due-to-covid-19/articleshow/75142792.cms
[5]. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower
[6]. https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/
[7]. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/19/its-time-practice-social-economic-distancing-china/
[8]. https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/fallout-from-covid19
[9]. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/386-billion-masks-exported-since-march-china/article31264447.ece
[10] https://www.atopdaily.com/top-10-most-powerful-militaries/
[11]. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/soft-power
[12]. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/04/china-is-donating-1000-ventilators-to-help-new-york-in-coronavirus-fight.html
[13]. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/covid-19-chinas-health-silk-road-diplomacy-in-iran-and-turkey-
[14]. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52092395
[15]. https://www.historydiscussion.net/world-history/how-usa-became-the-only-super-power-of-the-world/850/
[16]. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/16/coronavirus-pandemic-china-united-states-power-competition/
